استخدام منهج التحليل الأساسي في تحديد القيمة العادلة للمنشأة

Abstract

The study aimed to determine the best procedure to reach estimate the fair value of the firm, by the application on the Emirates Telecommunications Institution in the United Arab Emirates, where it was taken the most important aspects of her internal and external environment, and their impact on the performance results of the Institution. The study found a clear impact comes from international changes specifically the global financial crisis on macroeconomics, the telecommunications sector, and especially our Institution which was also affected by enter another competitor corporation, which is reflected in its financial statements. Researcher rearranged the financial statements for attends the objectives of the analysis, and she prepared forecasts for the most important items of the annual financial statements and indicators derived from them, which formed entries to estimate the fair value of firm stock by using Residual Operating Income Model. Because of the difficulties when applying Residual Operating Income Model, Researcher was moved to Ohlson1995 Model which depends on Auto-regression relationship for the Residual Operating Income, that require a long time-series, so researcher study Corporation quarterly reports from 30/6/2003 to 30/6/2011. Then she compared between the fair value estimated by the model and the market price of the stock, the study found that there are significant differences between them, and using of statistical models show that the market pricing of the stock does not consider the main risk factors in the Institution, but it is based only on the market and fluctuations in it, which may explain the difference between market pricing and estimated fair value.